I have no idea what's going on with The NFL this year. None. ZERO. Zip.
I also have been markedly less interested since Tom Brady got assassinated in KC 8 minutes into the season. But in the spirit of the season, I'll be giving my random ideas on who's going to win this weekend and why.
NFC Championship Game or The team that will lose the Super Bowl.
Arizona comes in as the underdog and the home team, that's a good combination. Philly is the top ranked team by DVOA the stat of choice favored by actual football experts over at Football Outsiders.com Philly has a choking quarterback whose thrown up in a Super Bowl during a crucial 2 minute drill. Arizona is quarterbacked by 37 year old Kurt Warner. Pittsburgh's quarterback had a concussion in week 17, has a safety that's pivotal to their defensive gameplan who will gut it out, and beat the Ravens on a super fluky touchdown call a few weeks ago. The Ravens are a 6th seed who are led by a rookie QB completing 46% of his passes during the playoffs.
I have NO idea what's going to happen. I could talk myself into any of these 4 teams. But I'm going to go with the match ups and teams that I have to talk myself into least.
Pittsburgh looked like the best team in the playoffs last week. But it played an SD team that had run out of mojo, couldn't run the ball and was a defensive nightmare. The point is Baltimore would have looked good against them too. Baltimore played IMO the best team overall this year. They needed an inury to Chris Johnson, a couple of really bad penalties from the Titans and a blatent no call on the play clock running out to beat them. They still kept things close and the bounces went their way. Much the way New England won the snow game in 01. The Ravens look like a team of destiny, and they're my overall pick this year. Now I have very little confidence in this pick since their QB is a rookie. The only way I was able to pick them was by looking at how HORRIFICALLY badly Joe Flacco is playing right now. He's completing less than half his passes and has 1 TD in 2 games. He really can't play much worse unless he has a rash of turnovers. Which so far this year he doesn't seem to have. He may not play great, but he doesn't turn it over much. Can Mcgahee and Mcclain (Mcrunningbacks?) get it done against a VERY good Pittsburgh defense? Who knows? Here's what I think, Ed Reed is the best player on the field this game. The Steelers will (hopefully) not be able to run on the Ravens, which means a still less than a month out of a concussion Rothlisberger will have to throw to win. I like the chances of Ed Reed making a play, even though there's been a ton of hype about Reed the last few weeks. I think Baltimore wins a close 17-14 game.
In Arizona there's nothing that's going to make me forget that Philly pasted the Cardinals 48-20 on Thanksgiving. I know they had to put the pads back on and get back to basics but they still lost less than 2 months ago to this team by 4 touchdowns. I'm going against the best player on the field theory, because there's no one better than Larry Fitzgerald on the field, but Philly seems MUCH better than Arizona. I think the defense consistently confuses and blitzes the hell out of everyone. And ya know who they're blitzing? Kurt Warner. The same Kurt Warner who can't move sideways and promised his kids they could get a puppy if the Cards get to the Super Bowl. Plus the Cardinals can't run and I don't buy their defense. They shut down the Falcons and their rookie QB and were the benefit of Jake Delholmme's meltdown disaster of doom. This one looks like a no brainer. Then again so did Atlanta, and Carolina... I'm going with Philly 31-13.
I have no faith in these picks and I'm going back to watching the NBA where Lebron is better than everyone else and we're pretty sure the Lakers and Celtics are good too.
I hate football this year.
T
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2 comments:
Dude, I'm so with you. I hate football this year too. Going into week for I had doubled my money gambling, and by week 7 I had lost everything in my gambling account. That was when I decided I was done betting until the playoffs. I have to say though, I really think I have a good beat on these playoffs.
Last week I won $80, betting on Baltimore to win straight up at +125 odds and Pittsburg/SD to be over 38. I did get kind of lucky though because i did a 6 point tease picking the Giants to win and Giants/Philly to score over 34 (which pushed), so I probably only deserved to win $25.
This week I'm making money though. Pittsburg is favored by 6 which is sort of retarded considering the line is 34. I also think that the Ravens are seriously underrated despite the fact that Flacco loves throwing into double coverage. I put a 6 pt tease on that game teasing up the Ravens to +12 and teasing down the over to 28. If that bet doesn't win I may consider quitting life.
In the other game, I just don't see Arizona beating Philly. I think Philly is seriously underrated coming from the division that had arguably the 4 best teams in football. They're favored by 4.5 but I'm teasing that down 6 to make it a +1.5 and teasing down the over to 41.
As much as I hate to see it, after Philly smacks Arizona up and down the field, they're going to win their first super bowl ever. However, if by some miracle they lose to AZ, the AFC will take it.
For the NFC title game, Arizona will be looking pitiful against the Eagles. Granted, Warner is not going to be getting the worst combination of field logistics for himself (Playing outside, in the cold, on the east coast), but this resurrected Philly defense is going to punish Kurt "I didn't know there was field outside the pocket" Warner. If James/Hightower gets more than fifteen touches, it will be shocking. A pissed off (but not mistake-free) McNabb should put some decent numbers up, and if Westbrook gets his running game going, provided his ribs don't disintegrate, you should see some Arizona fans leaving the game early.
Whether it's a shootout or Arizona falters, look for Philly to put 31+ on the board, tease the over/under down, and parlay Philly to cover and the over.
As for the AFC game, I'm completely shocked that the Ravens are getting dismissed the way they are as far as the spread is concerned. IF Pittsburgh wins, and that's a BIG if, it won't be by more than three points. Pittsburgh's offensive line has been folding like paper mache all year, against worse defenses than the number two defense that Baltimore is bringing? There's a good chance you'll see Leftwich in the second half after Big Ben gets hit.
Talker hit it right on the head with Flacco. While he's not doing well throwing the ball, he has been extremely efficient in not turning the ball over, and in the playoffs, mistake-free football leads to Super Bowl wins (hope you're reading this Delhomme), especially against a number one ranked Steeler defense that THRIVES on causing turnovers. Hopefully Flacco will throw to the opposite side of the field that Polamalu is covering.
Personally, I'm loading up on the Ravens this weekend. With the spread at anywhere from Pittsburgh -5.5 to -6 and them not beating the Ravens by more than four points this year, picking Baltimore is a solid lock, especially with how the Baltimore defense is playing.
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